The Bankruptcy of Modern Finance Theory – American Affairs Journal

Every strategic planning session ever.

The man who would go on to become the youngest recipient of the Nobel Prize in economics, Kenneth Arrow, began his career during World War II in the Weather Division of the U.S. Army Air Force. The division was responsible for turning out long-range weather forecasts.

Arrow ran an analysis of the forecasts and found that his group’s predictions failed to beat the null hypothesis of historical averages. He and his fellow officers submitted a series of memos to the commanding general suggesting that, in light of this finding, the group should be disbanded and the manpower reallocated.

After months of waiting in frustration for a response, they received a terse response from the general’s secretary. “The general is well aware that your division’s forecasts are worthless. However, they are required for planning purposes.”27

Source: The Bankruptcy of Modern Finance Theory – American Affairs Journal

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